Recently, the Prosecutor's office of Kyrgyzstan excluded the “Taliban” movement from the list of terrorist organizations. Earlier, the Kazakh authorities did the same. Is it possible to say that the “Taliban” is moving towards gaining political recognition at least in the region? The head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics, political scientist Andrey Serenko, commented on the relations between the “Taliban” and the countries of Central Asia in an interview with Oriental Express.

- Exclusion from the national lists of terrorist organizations does not equal full recognition and readiness to build normal relations, as with other states. It's just a beautiful gesture. Kazakhstan, for example, has not brought relations with the “Taliban” to the level of extraordinary and plenipotentiary ambassadors. There is an ambassador of Kazakhstan in Kabul, but there is no representative of the “Taliban” in this rank in Astana. The same applies to other countries that maintain any kind of relations with the “Taliban”.

Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, which Uzbekistan may soon join, are making this gesture as a demonstration of their willingness to maintain dialogue with the “Taliban”, and, more importantly, with friends of the “Taliban”. There are two reasons for this. The first is the hope that the “Taliban” regime will deter jihadist organizations based in Afghanistan that recruit fighters in Central Asian countries. There are at least 20 such groups there, including ISIS, “Al-Qaeda”, the Uighur group that unnerves China, and many others. China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and others hope that the “Taliban” will be able to somehow stop this dangerous activity.

The second reason is that some States would like the “Taliban” to receive, if not full recognition, then at least some kind of benevolent attitude from other States. First of all, this is Qatar, the long-time “guardian angel” of the “Taliban”. A “Taliban” representative office has been operating in Doha for a long time. It would be very difficult for the “Taliban” to exist without Qatar.

And the second patron is Turkey, which acts less publicly, but no less actively. One can give such an example, Marshal Dostum now lives in Turkey, and he is silent. At the same time, experts believe that if he had come to northern Afghanistan and called for an uprising against the “Taliban” regime, he would have been able to gather large forces, and the northern regions of the country would certainly have fallen away from Kabul. However, Dostum, like other former leaders who fled to Turkey, does nothing of the kind, as he and the others are closely guarded by the Turkish special services, who strongly advise against such steps.

Both Turkey and Qatar are very active in Central Asia, they are one of the main investors in this region. Therefore, local authorities are listening to the advice of Ankara and Doha, including on the issue of relations with the “Taliban”.

- The question arises, how much can the “Taliban” and wants to restrain other jihadist groups?

- In fact, the “Taliban” does not have many opportunities. They are wonderful “jihadi businessmen” and love to tell tales about their omnipotence, but this is just an advertisement exaggerating their influence. The “Taliban” can control “Jamaat Ansarullah”, consisting of several hundred militants, mostly from Tajikistan, but it is much more difficult to cope with the “Islamic State – Vilayat Khorsan” group.

The current Minister of Internal Affairs of Afghanistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani, in the recent past the main thug of the civil war, maintains close relations with “IG-Khorasan”. The Haqqani network controls Kabul, and at the same time, the leader of “IG-Khorasan” calmly comes there whenever he wants and feels safe there.

If under the Republic of “IG-Khorasan” there were about 4,000 militants, who were mostly in prisons, now there are more than 25 thousand of them. Supporters of the ISIS ideology from all over the world, from Africa to Russia, the Middle East and Asia, are flocking to Afghanistan. “IG-Khorasan” has a kind of agreement with the “Taliban”. ISIS is minimizing terror in Afghanistan itself – although the “Taliban” does not prohibit them from killing Shiites – in exchange for the “Taliban” turning a blind eye to terrorist attacks outside Afghanistan.

As a result, this group organizes bloody attacks in Russia, as in “Crocus City Hall”, and in Iran, as at the wake of General Suleimani. That is, despite all friendly relations with Russia, the “Taliban” either could not or did not want to prevent a terrorist attack in Moscow.

This is the answer to the question of whether the “Taliban” is capable of ensuring the security of the countries of Central Asia, and China too. So far, it seems to be provided, but it is not known what will happen next. By the way, China is very actively working with the “Taliban”, and delegations of representatives of the special services are constantly flying between the two countries. Beijing expects the “Taliban” to deter Uighur Islamists.

The “Taliban” is currently ready to cooperate with China and others, mostly not for free. They are, in principle, very mercantile people, and now they are going through a period of initial capital accumulation, so to speak. They are reaping the fruits of a war they have waged for 20 years, and the top of the “Taliban” are dollar millionaires. At the same time, ordinary militants sometimes literally have nothing to eat, and they go to weddings and funerals, hoping to quietly sit down at the table and have dinner. The top, banning education for girls over the sixth grade in the country, sends their daughters to study in the UAE and Pakistan, and goes to Uzbekistan for treatment, for example, more and more often.

China is ready to provide them with the same services in exchange for security. The “Taliban” is trying to do something, for example, they are moving the Uighurs away from the border with China, but their control is very conditional. In 2022, there was a terrorist attack against the Russian embassy in Kabul, and at the same time, Uighur extremists attacked the so-called guest house of Chinese tourists in the capital. It is believed that only agents of the Chinese special services are there. According to Beijing, no one was killed then, but according to the Uighurs, they managed to kill several people. The “Taliban” did not prevent attacks on either the Russian embassy or the Chinese guest house.

So the “Taliban” too often turns a blind eye to the terror of other jihadists. Moreover, they are forced to follow the lead of radical conservatives by passing laws restricting women. This is not Islam, but the Pashtun tradition, but they have to do it because, by their own admission, if the “Taliban” allows women to get an education, then half of their fighters will go to ISIS. For example, immediately after the terrorist attack at “Crocus City Hall” in only one Afghan province, more than 500 “Taliban” defected to ISIS, so powerful was this terrorist attack. And there is a high risk of the “Taliban” becoming ISIS all the time. This means that they have no control over ISIS, and if nothing changes, then at least part of Afghanistan, especially the north of the country, will come under the rule of ISIS.

- And what is the Afghan resistance to the “Taliban”? Marshal Dostum is inactive, as you have already said, but Ahmad Masood is very active, isn't he?

- Today, the Afghan constructive resistance is represented mainly by two forces. The most widely promoted organization in the media is the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (FNSA) under the leadership of 35-year-old Ahmad Masood, the son of Ahmad Shah Masood, who fought with the USSR and the “Taliban” and was killed under strange circumstances on September 10, 2001. Masood Jr. has mostly united Tajiks from Panjshir around him, but gradually he attracts other groups, correcting his actions. He graduated from the military academy in the UK and recently began planning operations himself, which explains the FNSA's summer successes in Herat and other areas.

By the way, Herat is the west of Afghanistan, a province adjacent to Iran. The effectiveness of Masood's fighters suggests some support from the Iranian special services. Until recently, Tehran preferred to deal with the “Taliban”, but it seems that, at least tacitly, the Iranians are beginning to support Masood. There are many Afghans in Iran who support this leader. I would like to note that Masood recently visited Tehran and Moscow, but he recently refused to visit the United States.

FNSA fighters carry out targeted liquidations of “Taliban” functionaries, including in Kabul, while not incurring losses themselves and not killing outsiders. This is the principled position of the FNSA – not to touch the peaceful Afghan population. The “Taliban” has never been bothered by such things, outsiders have always died from their actions. Haqqani was particularly distinguished by this. Masood's fighters, on the contrary, have not killed a single civilian in three years.

The second resistance force is the Freedom Front of Afghanistan (FSA) of Lieutenant General Yasin Zia, an ethnic Tajik, former deputy head of intelligence. He is considered a very good commander and organizer, and enjoys great authority among former Afghan security forces, so the FSA consists mainly of special forces, commandos of the former armed forces of the republic. That is, if Masood recruits people on the principle of community, then General Zia – on the principle of professional training, regardless of origin.

General Zia's fighters have launched a real hunt for “Taliban” functionaries in Kabul, and they are now afraid to go out at night sometimes. The FSA people track down the target and arrange successful assassination attempts. The latest example was the killing of the commander of one of the provincial intelligence departments of the “Taliban” in western Afghanistan.

Zia is creating the infrastructure for long-term resistance. He does not have bases outside the country yet, unlike Masood, who has a training camp in Tajikistan. But his front has not yet reached full capacity. One of General Zia's supporters told me that their potential is estimated at tens of thousands of former military personnel.

Both Masood's people and Zia's people are very determined. They intend to fight for the liberation of their country from the rule of the “Taliban”, and I hope that all countries in the region will understand this sooner or later and will work with the resistance forces.

It is worth naming another person, this is Amrullah Saleh, the former head of intelligence. A very smart and cunning professional who knows the region perfectly, knows the “Taliban” and their leaders, and so on. He still has agents in Afghanistan, and he is perfectly aware of everything that is happening in the country. In fact, he has private intelligence in his hands, and it is important to note that the Afghan special services, which have been fighting the “Taliban” and Pakistani intelligence for 20 years, have gained a lot of experience and have become very professional. So the interest in Saleh is constantly growing.

I have no doubt that the Taliban regime will fall, and it will fall relatively soon, unless the “Taliban” completely changes. In Afghanistan, there will inevitably be a clash between the “Taliban”, ISIS and the resistance, that is, unfortunately, there will be another civil war.

And the world community will have to choose which of them to support. It is obvious that the resistance forces are the only ones who can build a normal, civilized country and a modern state. Whoever supports them first will then be able to realize their interests in Afghanistan.

But in the short term, there is a process of a sharp strengthening of jihadists, not only “IG-Khorasan”, but also “Al-Qaeda”, which everyone has forgotten about, but it penetrates into Central Asia, Russia, and Europe.

Our sources say that today the Jahidists are in full swing preparing a new September 11th. Last year, the leader of the Afghan ISIS said that they need their own September 11, that is, a very loud terrorist attack with a huge number of victims, and they are actively planning it. Where it will happen, in what country, in what form – we do not know. But preparations are underway, that's for sure, and they are planning something comparable to the terrorist attacks in New York, using the respite gained from the war in Ukraine.

Jihadists are learning all new technologies, looking at the experience of the Ukrainian war and the war in Gaza. For example, many new camps have been opened for training in the use of drones. And the world community is completely inactive, so the only hope lies with the resistance forces. Otherwise, terrorism from Afghanistan will quickly spread around the world.

- To what extent can the “Taliban” themselves cause the destabilization of neighboring countries? For example, the problem of water allocation is very acute now, and the “Taliban” have already entered into conflict with Iran on this issue, and recently began to exert pressure on the countries of Central Asia. Could this lead to war?

- Firstly, the “Taliban” have created a regime in Afghanistan that allows them to earn money and spend it on strengthening their forces. The total number of militants in all structures, and they have the so-called army, police, and special services, although the “terrorist police” sounds very strange, so the total number is approaching half a million people. At the same time, 80% of the population in Afghanistan is young people living in poverty, and this is the best material for recruiting militants. And if the “Taliban” are constantly raising generations of jihadists, then they will use them sooner or later.

Secondly, other jihadists are flourishing in Afghanistan, coming from everywhere. And they pose a great threat to neighboring countries, both Iran and Central Asia. It may not be the “Taliban” itself, but they are gaining strength under the auspices of the “Taliban”.

Thirdly, as you correctly noted, these are disputes with neighboring countries, primarily over water. The conflict with Iran has been stopped so far, but it may manifest itself again. The project of the “Kosh-Tepa” canal on the border with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is generally very interesting. Please note how Uzbekistan's efforts to normalize relations with the “Taliban” have been sharply intensified recently. It came to the visit of the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan to Afghanistan and the signing of agreements. Where did all this come from? Very simply, my sources reported that the “Taliban” had presented territorial claims to Tashkent over the border line and handed over documents demanding that the border be moved north.

These claims look like this. The “Taliban” claim that Uzbekistan has been carrying out various works on the Amu Darya for decades, which is why its channel has shifted to the south. Now they demand to return the border to its place, that is, if this is done, the entire Amu Darya will end up on the territory of “Taliban” Afghanistan. Here's a clever way to take away the river. Most likely, this is what forced Uzbekistan to step up in order to convince the “Taliban” to retreat, but so far the “Taliban” is not going to give in and intends to take the river from Uzbekistan by all available means.

It's the same with Turkmenistan. The “Taliban” have made territorial claims, ranging from 30 to 50 kilometers on the border. Therefore, the Turkmen government is also forced to actively negotiate with them.

The “Kosh-Tepa” Canal is associated with claims to the Amu Darya River. A separate question is who exactly gave the “Taliban” money for the channel – it is still unclear. Qatar, Turkey, and others are called, but this is unknown. In any case, the “Taliban” intend to take the river and other territories from their neighbors, and they are ready to use all means at their disposal, including acting through various extremist groups to destabilize Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. So the “Taliban” regime itself remains a threat to the region.