On Tuesday March 7, the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) set an official exchange rate of the U.S. dollar (USD) against the Tajik national currency, the somoni (TJS), at 1:8.0049.

Thus, the official exchange rate of the somoni against the dollar has fallen 1.6 percent since the beginning of the year – from 7.8762 on January 1, 2017 to 8.0049:1 on March 7, 2017.  

Meanwhile, some currency-exchange points in Dushanbe are selling the dollar at the rate of 1:8.12.

While major commercial banks like Agroinvestbonk, Tojik Sodirot Bonk, and Orienbonk had no dollars to speak of, some smaller lenders had small amounts to go around.

Some experts attribute the sudden dollar crisis to the recent effort by the government to recapitalize a number of distressed banks.

Representatives of Tajik central bank say the dollar deficit has a temporary effect and is typical for the current season “when the country’s foreign currency receipts are at the relatively low level.”  

The NBT says the situation in the currency market is under the control and there will be no sharp jumps.  

Tajikistan has mainly resorted to “administrative resources” to keep the currency on an even keel.

In December 2015, the National Bank ordered the closure of all unauthorized currency exchange points in the city. After that, only banks were able to perform foreign exchange operations. Anybody found violating this new arrangement could face jail terms of up to nine years.  Also, banks are forbidden by law from selling somoni at more than 1.5 percent the rate established by the National Bank.

Even the Finance Ministry has long freely admitted the somoni is set for gradual devaluation, which explains why people are so eager to get rid of their stocks.  According to the ministry’s forecasts, the somoni is projected to slide to 9.6 somoni to the dollar this year, to 10.4 somoni in 2018 and to 11.2 somoni in 2019.