The World Bank has raised its forecast for Tajikistan's economic growth for the current year by 0.7 percentage points, from 6.5% to 7.2%. According to the World Bank's new report on the economy of the Europe and Central Asia region, this is the highest forecast among all countries in the region.
The report entitled "Better Education for Stonger Growth" notes that relatively high economic growth by the end of this year is also expected in Uzbekistan (6.0%), Kyrgyzstan (5.8%), and Armenia (5.5%).
Additionally, World Bank economists have improved their forecast for Tajikistan's economic growth in the coming years: from 4.5% to 5.5% in 2025 and from 4.5% to 5.0% in 2026. A higher level of economic growth in 2025-2026 is expected only in Uzbekistan (5.8% and 5.9%, respectively).
Overall, the report’s authors emphasize that "after a series of crises in developing countries in this region, economic growth is stabilizing, but at a much lower level than in the early 2000s."
According to the forecasts, economic growth in the region may slow to 3.3% this year compared to 3.5% in 2023, and drop further to 2.6% in 2025.
"This is much lower than the average annual figure for 2000-2009," the report states.
The previously high growth of Tajikistan's economy (8.3% in 2023 and 8.2% in the first half of 2024) was attributed by World Bank analysts to increased revenues from gold exports, growth in private consumption, and government infrastructure spending.
"Domestic demand was supported by an increase in remittances from labor migrants and a rise in public sector wages in 2023, which further contributed to poverty reduction," the report on Tajikistan's economy noted.
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