In November 2024, Tajikistan's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 150.9 points, interrupting a three-month decline, according to a study conducted by Freedom Finance Global.
The index increased from 148.8 to 150.9 points, with four out of five subindices showing growth. Significant improvement was noted in assessments of personal financial situations, which reached a record level.
Assessments of personal financial situations
Residents of Tajikistan expressed optimism about changes in their financial circumstances. This subindex rose from 145.7 to 153.7 points. In November, 73.2% of respondents positively assessed their financial situation, up from 67.3% in October.
The most significant growth in optimism was recorded among residents aged 45-59, with positive responses increasing from 60% to 73.1%. Youth under 29 also showed notable results, with optimism rising from 70.7% to 77.7%. The smallest growth was observed among those aged 30-44, reaching 68.9%.
Improvements in financial assessments were seen across all regions. In Dushanbe, this figure increased from 52.7% to 69.2%. The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) showed the best result at 75.7%, while in the Districts Subordinate to the Center (RRP), the share of positive responses reached 69.1%.
Conditions for major purchases
The subindex for favorable conditions for major purchases rose by 2.3 points to 84 points, with nearly 41% of respondents giving positive feedback. Among age groups, the most significant growth was among individuals over 60, where optimism increased from 39.1% to 43.1%. Although youth under 29 remained the leaders in this metric, their optimism slightly declined from 44.9% to 44.2%.
The best regional performance was observed in GBAO (51.8%), while in Dushanbe, the share of optimists decreased from 40.4% to 37.7%.
Inflationary sentiments
In November, inflationary sentiments worsened. The proportion of respondents noticing price increases over the past month rose from 23.9% to 26.4%. Over the past 12 months, the number of people perceiving accelerated price growth increased from 26.6% to 28%.
Prices for meat and poultry remain a concern for residents. However, the share of people reporting significant price increases in these categories decreased from 58.1% to 50.6%. Concerns about rising prices for flour, vegetable oil, fruits, and vegetables also declined.
Devaluation Expectations
Devaluation expectations among Tajikistanis strengthened again. In November, the exchange rate of the dollar to the somoni rose by more than 2.0%, marking the most significant increase since February 2023. The proportion of respondents anticipating a weakening of the national currency within a year increased from 23.1% to 28.8%.
November a challenging month for Central Asia
According to consumer confidence studies, November 2024 proved difficult for most Central Asian countries. The main challenges were rising inflationary and devaluation expectations.
In Kazakhstan, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell to its lowest level since May. Residents gave increasingly pessimistic evaluations of the economy and their personal financial situations. Uzbekistan experienced similar dynamics, with rising pessimism about major purchases and inflation.
Kyrgyzstan, like Tajikistan, saw a recovery in its CCI. In Kyrgyzstan, the index improved slightly after two months of decline but did not reach September levels.
Inflationary expectations increased across the region. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan recorded the highest levels of price growth, while devaluation concerns also intensified, especially in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
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