India–Central Asia bilateral trade has the potential to exceed USD 10 billion, reflecting the region’s strategic significance and untapped economic opportunities.

India’s growing role in the global economy is encouraging it to pursue deeper, more strategic trade relationships beyond its borders. A key opportunity exists in Central Asia, which is rich in energy resources, mineral wealth, and strategic connectivity.

The five Central Asian Republics, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, form a USD 546 billion economy in 2025 with around 80 million people. Their economies have grown more than fourfold since 2000, demonstrating a strong, structurally driven growth trajectory. India’s total trade with Central Asia reached US$1.72 billion in recent years. The evolving geopolitical landscape, diversified supply chains, and shifting trade routes strengthen India’s economic ties with Central Asia, not just as a partner but as a future growth ally.

Central Asia’s Economic Rise and Strategic Relevance

Central Asia has gradually moved from a raw-material-dependent periphery to a promising economic zone, with modernisation at its core. Kazakhstan leads this transformation, contributing nearly 58 per cent of the region’s GDP with an economy of USD  300 billion in 2025 and a population of about 20 million. Uzbekistan, with a GDP of around USD 137 billion and a population of 37 million, is rapidly diversifying away from commodity dependence and emerging as a major consumer market driven by a young population.

Size of Central Asian Allies

Source: IMF

Turkmenistan’s gas-rich growth has increased its GDP to nearly USD 72 billion in 2025, while the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan have smaller economies at USD 20 billion and USD 17 billion, respectively. The region sits at the centre of Eurasia, linking China to Europe and Russia to the Middle East. It serves as an essential land bridge for emerging transcontinental trade routes. As global shipping lanes become riskier and more expensive, these overland routes are gaining unprecedented strategic importance, positioning Central Asia as a key commercial partner for countries that can provide technology, investment, and diverse markets. India fits this role perfectly.

India’s Economic Strengths

India has emerged as one of the fastest–growing large economies, with average real GDP growth above 7 percent from FY 2021-22 to 2024-25, and with foreign trade accounting for nearly half of GDP. India’s scale, innovation capabilities, expanding industrial base, and strong services sector make it uniquely positioned to engage with regions seeking modern technology, infrastructure, and new markets.

Central Asia, on the other hand, seeks to reduce its overreliance on traditional northern and eastern partners by expanding its economic outreach. This leads to a natural convergence. Both sides share a long-standing civilizational connection, mutual security interests, and a geopolitical vision of a more interconnected Eurasia. For Central Asia, India is a key export market. For India, Central Asia provides energy security, mineral sourcing, and access to European markets via emerging land corridors.

Trade Corridors and Connectivity

For decades, the main obstacle to India–Central Asia trade was not of interest but logistics. India does not share a direct land border with the region, and transit through Pakistan remains impossible. As a result, bilateral trade has depended on long, costly sea–land routes that limit trade scale. However, connectivity is undergoing visible changes. The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects India to Russia and Central Asia via Iran and the Caspian Sea, aims to significantly reduce transport costs and time.

The development of Iran’s Chabahar Port, managed by India, marks a turning point, offering a direct gateway to Afghanistan and further into Central Asia. New multimodal routes crossing Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are gradually reducing logistical bottlenecks. At the same time, Central Asian countries are investing heavily in electrified railway lines, modern road networks, inland ports, dry cargo terminals, and digitised customs systems. These infrastructure improvements, along with rising geopolitical interest in Middle Eastern and Eurasian corridors, suggest that trade flows between India and Central Asia are poised for significant expansion in the near future.

The Partnership Can Expand Manifold

The product complementarity between India and Central Asia is very strong. India has established global competitiveness in automobiles, pharmaceuticals, machinery, electronics, processed foods, cereals, commercial vehicles, optical and medical equipment, chemicals, and IT services. These are precisely the sectors that Central Asian economies need to industrialize, modernize healthcare, upgrade agriculture, and improve consumer services.

On the import side, India can significantly benefit from Central Asia’s abundant deposits of natural gas, uranium, metals, petrochemical feedstocks, fertiliser raw materials, and rare earth elements, which are essential for India’s energy and manufacturing security. Central Asia is also making progress in tourism, renewable energy, textiles, agro-business, logistics, and digital reforms, all areas where Indian enterprises possess technological strength and investment interests. This alignment of needs and capabilities creates a strong foundation for substantial growth in the years ahead.

Investments Offer Immense Space to Grow

Between April 2000 and March 2024, Indian companies invested approximately US$392 million in Kazakhstan, around US$24 million in the Kyrgyz Republic, close to US$18 million in Uzbekistan, and roughly US$5 million in Tajikistan. Most of the Indian capital in the region, nearly two-thirds, has gone into the coal, oil, and gas sectors. While this is strategic, it also highlights the untapped range of opportunities. Kazakhstan offers promising prospects in petrochemicals, mining, metallurgy, agro-tech, healthcare, and renewable energy. Uzbekistan is opening new pathways in agriculture, hydrocarbons processing, chemical manufacturing, and tourism services.

Turkmenistan’s gas reserves open up opportunities for joint ventures in petrochemical exploration and pipeline logistics. The Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan are looking for Indian partnerships in hydropower, mining technologies, textiles, digital connectivity, and power systems. India’s expertise in engineering contracting, project finance, pharmaceuticals, ICT, space-based services, and skilled workforce development is sharply boosting Central Asia’s industrial goals. Indian banks, sovereign funds, infrastructure companies, and digital innovators are rising as key players in the region’s development story.

Government Push and Strategic Roadmap for a Larger Partnership

Both India and Central Asian countries recognise that the commercial relationship must now go beyond rhetoric. Systematic government-to-government mechanisms have been established through various summits, regular interactions among foreign and trade ministers, and working groups dedicated to connectivity, energy, customs cooperation, pharmaceuticals, and industrial investments.

Policy coordination is underway to harmonise customs systems with World Customs Organisation standards and reduce border waiting times. Several initiatives emphasise digitalisation of border systems, transparency in freight handling, and the development of reliable logistics and warehousing infrastructure are being connected to new transport corridors.

Another vital aspect is diversifying trade finance by expanding direct banking links and rupee-based settlements, which can help reduce currency volatility and facilitate smoother business transactions. Besides trade processes, the partnership is also growing in areas like culture, education, soft power, and the exchange of skilled human resources. India’s experience in digital governance, tele-medicine, vocational training, and agricultural innovation is already impacting reform agendas in Central Asia.

India-Central Asia Scaling Trade to Its Real Potential

India and Central Asia currently stand at a crucial point where expanding trade is not just desirable but also economically sensible. As manufacturing in India integrates into global supply chains and Central Asia develops into a more diverse economy bilateral trade could increase from US$1.72 billion to a level commensurate with its strategic potential.

Over the next decade, it is realistic to expect India–Central Asia trade to reach USD 10-15 billion or more, with improved connectivity and increased private sector engagement. To achieve this, India is expanding its presence in sectors such as automobiles, commercial vehicles, engineering goods, processed food, pharmaceuticals, and energy technology within Central Asian markets. India’s approach to import from Central Asia also prioritizes minerals, petrochemical inputs, and raw materials that directly strengthen India’s industrial and energy sectors. Strategic partnerships in green hydrogen, LNG supplies, solar energy systems, and modernised mining can foster long-term mutual dependence based on economic strength rather than political alignment.

A Partnership Whose Time Has Finally Come

In conclusion, India and Central Asia share deep historical ties and modern strategic goals. The changing global economic landscape, combined with the need for diversified, resilient trade routes, has made their partnership not only advantageous but also vital. India provides scale, technology, capital, manufacturing capacity, and a large market. Central Asia offers energy security, natural resources, new consumer markets, and a crucial position in emerging Eurasian connectivity.

After decades of logistical and geopolitical challenges, both regions are now ready to enter a phase of meaningful economic cooperation based on real complementarities and strong policy support. The momentum of trade facilitation, infrastructure improvements, and investment reforms continues; India–Central Asia relations are poised to become one of the most dynamic pillars of Eurasian economic cooperation in the coming decades.

The foundation for deeper integration is being laid. With committed action from both sides, the future holds the promise of a much stronger commercial and strategic partnership, one capable of significantly boosting the economic futures of India and Central Asia.