In recent months, discussions about migrant crime rates in Russia have surged, sparking disinformation, manipulation, and controversy.  Official statistics from various Russian government agencies often conflict, anti-migrant rhetoric has intensified among officials, and xenophobia is on the rise in society.

Spoiler Alert

Over the past 20 years, crime rates among foreigners in Russia have actually decreased by 4%.  In 2003, foreign citizens committed 40,570 crimes, but by 2023, this figure dropped to 38,936.  Over the last five years, crimes by foreigners have increased by only 11.5%, and they have actually declined by 3% over the past year.  On average, crimes committed by foreign citizens comprise between 2.5% and 3.9% of the total investigated crimes in Russia, averaging about 3.4% over the past 20 years.  This equates to around 34 crimes per 1,000 being attributed to migrants.

Who said what?

• February 2024: The Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) announced a 3% decrease in crimes committed by foreigners in 2023 compared to 2022. However, subsequent statements from law enforcement sparked confusion.
• March 2024: Prosecutor-General Igor Krasnov claimed a 75% rise in migrant crime, urging stricter measures against illegal migration. His statements caused puzzlement, especially given a recent terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, which likely affected the overall tone.
• April 2024: MIA Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev refuted Krasnov's claims, stating migrant crime had actually dropped by 3% in 2023, with significant reductions in serious crimes such as murder and robbery.
• June 2024: Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigative Committee, reported a sharp increase in migrant crimes, citing 14,070 crimes committed by migrants in the first four months of 2024. These statistics contradicted the previously released MIA data.
• July 2024: MIA spokesperson Irina Volk countered Bastrykin’s statements, reporting a 6.4% decrease in migrant crime in the first half of 2024, raising public questions about who to trust.
• August 2024: The MIA published further data showing a 3.1% decline in migrant crime for the first seven months of 2024, with serious offenses down by 9.2%, murders down by 14%, and drug-related crimes down by 21.7%.
• September 2024: Bastrykin again asserted an increase in serious crimes among migrants, with offenses by illegal migrants tripling and a 69% increase in crimes by labor migrants.
• October 2024: Bastrykin reported a 10% rise in crimes committed by underage migrants compared to 2023, including a more than twofold increase in particularly serious crimes—from 53 to 108 cases.

Analysis of long-term data

Contradictory statements have left the public confused about whom to believe.  To clarify, Asia-Plus analyzed MIA data on migrant crime in Russia from the past 20 years (2003–2023).  The findings reveal fluctuating crime rates among foreign citizens.  The most notable increase occurred in 2004, up by 20.6% from 2003.  Between 2003 and 2009, migrant crime did rise by 42.8% over six years. However, in 2010, migrant crime fell by 15.5%, indicating that fluctuations were not always upward.

From 2010 onward, the trend reversed, with migrant crime decreasing by 28.7% over nine years (2010–2019).  The last few years (2020–2023) show a modest increase of 13.2%, likely linked to the social and economic fallout of the pandemic and deteriorating working conditions for migrants.

MIA data also separately tracks crimes by citizens from Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, who are responsible for about 88% of all migrant crimes.

Expert opinions

Experts suggest that Russian authorities are using claims of rising migrant crime to justify tougher migration policies and tighter control. A Tajik human rights advocate in Russia, speaking anonymously, said that significant crime increases among migrants do not actually exist. Such statements may aim to create a negative image of migrants and justify harsh measures.

Human rights advocate Valentina Chupik, who provides free legal aid to migrants, adds that this rhetoric could justify police misconduct, such as unlawful detentions, extortion, and negligence. "Stoking fears of migrant crime will lead to even greater disenfranchisement of migrants and impunity for police, as well as an increase in hate-motivated crimes," she notes.