An article published by CABAR.asia says that at the local level, saving glaciers is difficult since the primary cause is global greenhouse gas emissions, scientists say.  Over the past 70 years, temperatures in the mountains of Tajikistan have risen by 1.5°C.  This warming has led to frequent natural disasters—glaciers are gradually melting, forming numerous lakes on the surface, which can break through at any moment, triggering landslides and flooding villages at the foot of the mountains.

The total glaciated area of Central Asian countries is approximately 17,000 square kilometers, with about 65% of it located in Tajikistan.  The largest concentration of glaciers is in the eastern part of the country, in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, near the highest peaks of the republic—Somoni Peak and Abu Ali ibn Sina Peak.

Tajikistan is the leader in Central Asia in terms of the number of glaciers.  The country is home to more than 14,000 glaciers, 19 of which are large.  Although glaciers cover only 6-8% of the country’s territory (8,476.2 sq. km), they store around 460 cubic kilometers of freshwater.

Major glaciers in Tajikistan feed the Amu Darya and Zeravshan river systems, which flow downstream into Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan.  This is why it is often said that the majority of the region’s water originates in Tajikistan.  However, the intensive melting of glaciers in the near future will lead to rising river water levels, increasing natural disasters, and affecting not only Tajikistan but the entire region.

Glaciologists note that glacier melting is an irreversible process—they have always melted and will continue to do so.  However, at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century, human activity accelerated this process.

The average annual air temperature in Tajikistan’s highlands has risen by more than 1.5 degrees, causing hundreds of small glaciers to disappear entirely, while larger glaciers continue to retreat.

Industrial development and greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere accelerate glacier melting worldwide by heating the Earth’s atmosphere and raising air temperatures, leading to frequent natural disasters and other negative consequences for the planet.

Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise annually, with the most affected countries often being those with minimal contributions to these emissions. In 2023, global greenhouse gas emissions reached nearly 53 billion tons. Tajikistan's share in this was just 0.04%, while its neighboring country, China, accounted for 30%—the highest in the world.

The Vanjakh (Fedchenko) glacier: a shrinking giant

The Vanjakh (Fedchenko) Glacier, located in the mountains of northwestern Pamir within the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, is one of the largest non-polar glaciers in the world. Over 88 years, it has shrunk by 1.5 km.

Scientists around the world are searching for ways to prevent rapid glacier melting.  For instance, in Sweden, researchers conducted an experiment three years ago by covering a small part of a glacier with a special heat-resistant polyethylene cover.  When they returned a year later, they found that the covered part had barely melted, unlike the uncovered section.

However, this method is not feasible for Tajikistan due to the complex mountainous terrain and the vast size of its glaciers.

Glacial lakes and the rising threat of natural disasters

The formation of glacial lakes is inevitable under current climate conditions. Today, the glacier with the highest number of glacial lakes is the Bivachny Glacier, located in the left tributary of the Vanjakh Glacier.  This glacier is quite large, measuring 30.1 km in length and covering an area of about 100 sq. km. Its surface is literally covered with small, medium, and large lakes—more than 50 in total.

In recent years, Tajikistan has experienced a sharp increase in the frequency of natural disasters.

Climatologists identify three main causes of mudflows: heavy and prolonged rainfall in spring and autumn,

Rapid melting of snow or glaciers (glacial floods) in summer; the rupture of natural dams and moraines (accumulations of rock debris); and recent trends indicate that mudflows are now occurring in areas previously considered safe.

According to the Center for Glaciology at the Tajik Hydrometeorological Agency, there are over 1,200 glacial lakes in Tajikistan, and their number continues to grow due to climate change and glacier melting.

The risk of glacial floods is highest in summer when temperatures in glacier regions remain above freezing for five or more consecutive days.  In such cases, experts can predict where a glacial lake outburst is likely to occur.

A new threat: dust storms

Over the past five years, Tajikistan has experienced an increase in sand and dust storms, commonly referred to as "Afghan dust storms." Previously, such storms occurred once or twice a year in summer, but they have now become more frequent, especially in the southern and central parts of the country, at any time of the year.

Meteorological observations indicate that most dust storms originate from the south and west, not only from the deserts of Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia but also from the Sahara Desert. Droughts in many transit countries exacerbate the scale of dust invasions.

Tajikistan lies in the dust belt, on the path of dust from ten major deserts, including the Sahara, Iran’s Dasht-e Lut and Dasht-e Kavir, the Arabian Desert, the deserts of Central Asia (Aralkum, Kyzylkum, and Karakum), as well as the Taklamakan and Gobi deserts. From April to November, dust invasions occur annually.

Tajikistani glaciologists have yet to determine the exact impact of dust storms on glaciers. More data is needed. However, studies have shown that the massive dust invasion of July 10, 2021, reached the Vanjakh Glacier, raising concerns.

When dust settles on glaciers, it reduces the albedo (reflective capacity) of ice and snow, causing them to absorb more heat and melt faster than usual.

Glaciologists and climatologists in Tajikistan see solutions in the development of green energy and ecological tree-planting programs. The problem, however, is that these programs require at least 20 years to yield tangible results.

Yet, since glacier degradation is primarily driven by global greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, these measures may not bring rapid success.