Representatives of the OSCE will not be coming to monitor the upcoming parliamentary elections in Tajikistan. What does this mean for the electoral process?

The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) stated that due to "the lack of guarantees from the Tajik authorities regarding the registration or accreditation of observers," it will not send its observers to assess the parliamentary elections scheduled for March 2, 2025.

The Central Commission for Elections and Referenda (CCER) of Tajikistan declined to comment on this OSCE statement, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims that the procedure was violated by the OSCE, and experts argue that the presence or absence of OSCE observers will not impact the election process.

"No guarantees provided"

 The ODIHR  had planned to send 20 long-term and 150 short-term observers to Tajikistan to monitor the transparency of the parliamentary elections but has now decided against this. Both groups of observers play a crucial role in ensuring the transparency and legality of elections.

The ODIHR said on February 4 that the lack of assurance by the authorities of Tajikistan that international observers will be accredited has regrettably made it necessary to cancel the observation of the country’s forthcoming parliamentary elections.

“We deeply regret that our observation of the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Tajikistan will no longer be possible,” said ODIHR Director Maria Telalian.  “But the absence of formal guarantees that our observers will be able to carry out their work less than a month before election day made our withdrawal from the observation unavoidable.”

Although the observation mission opened on January 22, the team of election experts based in Dushanbe had reportedly been unable to begin their work.  The continuing lack of assurances that ODIHR experts and international observers would receive the accreditation needed to observe the election followed numerous attempts to obtain clarity on the issue and an extension of the deadline for a formal response from the authorities.   

"We didn't close the door on them"

Tajikistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sirojiddin Muhriddin, clarified the situation at a news conference on February 11.  He explained that the ODIHR had proposed deadlines for registering observers, initially by January 31, and then by February 3, expecting that Tajikistan would register their mission by those dates.

"The Central Commission for Elections and Referenda has its own procedures and rules.  During the dates they requested for observer registration, the leadership of our commission was engaged in elections in Belarus and other countries.  Therefore, we couldn't register them by January 31 or February 3," the minister said.

Muhriddin emphasized that after this, ODIHR representatives brought the issue to the attention of all OSCE Permanent Council members in Vienna in a "negative light."

"In this issue, Tajikistan is not at fault.  It was they who violated the procedure and left.  Despite this, the doors for all OSCE structures remain open, and we are ready for cooperation.  We didn't close the door on them," the foreign minister stressed.

Does the presence or absence of OSCE observers make a difference?

Tajik experts, pointing to the limited role of OSCE observers in the electoral process, believe that their participation or absence will not affect the course of the elections.

Professor Ibrahim Usmonov, a former parliamentarian, stated: "It would have been better if OSCE observers came and monitored the elections, but their absence will not impact the process—the elections will still take place."

Saifullo Safarov, head of the Tajikistan Political Scientists Association and former deputy director of the Center for Strategic Studies, also commented: “The presence or absence of OSCE observers at the elections in Tajikistan makes no difference.”

"Even if they were present, they would just observe and not interfere with the electoral process. Only we can conduct transparent elections or not," Safarov emphasized. He also noted that "there is no need for parliamentary elections in Tajikistan to be controlled by any international organization, as there are opposition political parties in the country that can monitor the election process."

Monitoring Experience and Recommendations

Tajikistan has been inviting OSCE observers to monitor parliamentary and presidential elections since 1995. Over the past 30 years, this organization has monitored eight election campaigns in the country.

OSCE observers have concluded that elections in Tajikistan did not meet international standards and were neither democratic nor transparent. The authorities of the republic have consistently rejected these assessments.

The organization has provided its recommendations to the Tajik government for improving the situation, but in one of its reports, it highlighted that none of its suggestions had been implemented.