According to the country’s Hydrometeorology Agency (Hydromet), January 2026 is expected to be relatively warm across most parts of Tajikistan. The average monthly air temperature is forecast to be 1–2°C above the climatic norm, while precipitation levels will be around or below normal.

Khatlon province and valley districts subordinate to the center:

In valley districts, the average temperature will range from +4°C to +5°C, and in foothill regions — from +1°C to +2°C. Nighttime temperatures will vary between –5°C and +2°C, and daytime temperatures will range from +2°C to +12°C. Dry weather is expected from January 5 to 14. In the second half of the month, rain, sleet, and snow are possible. Some days may see fog and wind gusts of up to 15–20 m/s.

Sughd province:

Temperatures will be near or slightly above the seasonal norm. In the valleys, nighttime temperatures will range from –3°C to –8°C, and daytime temperatures from +2°C to +13°C. In mountainous areas, nighttime lows could reach –16°C, with daytime temperatures from –6°C to +6°C. The first half of the month is expected to be mostly dry, while the second half may bring rain and snow, with snowfall predominant in mountainous zones. Wind gusts of 17–22 m/s and fog are possible in some areas.

Mountainous districts subordinate to the center and western GBAO:

Average monthly temperatures in mountainous districts subordinate and the center and western part of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO ) will range from –3°C to –9°C, which is above normal. On certain days, nighttime lows could drop to –18°C -- –20°C, while daytime temperatures will range from –5°C to +4°C. Precipitation will be around or below normal, with wind gusts up to 12–17 m/s.

Eastern GBAO:

The eastern part of GBAO will remain the coldest region. Average temperatures will range from –14°C to –17°C. In the third ten-day period of the month, nighttime lows may reach –35°C and daytime temperatures –15°C. Little precipitation is expected.

Overall, January 2026 in Tajikistan is forecast to be warmer than usual, with below-average precipitation and sharp temperature fluctuations, especially in mountainous areas.