Tajikistan may not have vast oil and gas reserves that many countries rely on for development and prosperity.  However, in today's world, where digital technologies and the transition to a green economy are rapidly advancing, the demand for oil products is decreasing, giving way to rare metals.  This shift could mark a golden period for Tajikistan, as the country possesses significant reserves of non-ferrous metals and other rare elements, which are increasingly in demand worldwide.

The gradual depletion of global oil and gas reserves and the harmful environmental impact of petroleum products are prompting countries to turn to alternative, renewable, and environmentally friendly energy sources.  The development of technologies in this direction heavily depends on rare earth elements (REEs), whose global reserves are limited, while demand continues to grow.

In addition, the rapid development of digital technologies and the electronics industry requires the extraction of large volumes of rare earth metals and other elements.  Experts call REEs the "vitamins of the modern economy," and their importance has led to a global race for exploration, mining, and export.

Given Tajikistan's significant REE reserves, there are ample reasons to believe that the country is poised for a breakthrough in its development.

What is Tajikistan rich in?

Tajikistan is a country in the Central Asian region with vast mineral reserves.  According to the Main Geology Directorate under the Government of Tajikistan, over 700 deposits of valuable natural elements have been discovered in country.  Tajikistan has identified four gold-bearing belts and 18 prospective areas, with a total of 28 gold deposits.

Iron ores are known in northern Tajikistan, on the southern slopes of the Kuramin Range.  Large deposits of polymetallic ores have been explored in northern and central Tajikistan.  The main deposits are found in the Karamazar and Altyn-Topkan mountain ranges in southwestern Tian Shan, near the border with Uzbekistan.  Confirmed lead reserves are estimated at 1.8 million tons, and zinc at 4.66 million tons.  Silver reserves amount to 44,000 tons, placing Tajikistan fifth in the world.  The country also holds a leading position in antimony and mercury ore reserves within the former Soviet Union.

Emomali Rahmon: special attention to lithium mining!

Considering the current global trend of increasing demand for rare earth elements, Tajikistan has begun to pay serious attention to developing the mining industry. In his December 2023 address, President Emomali Rahmon extensively analyzed the metallurgical and mining industries. He tasked the government to focus on the extraction and processing of non-ferrous metals, including lithium, tungsten, nickel, and antimony, and to develop and implement a program for processing these metals domestically into finished products.

During his August 2023 visit to the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO), President Rahmon advocated for expanding the extraction and processing of minerals, including one of the rarest minerals—lithium, in the Darvaz district. Lithium, often called "white oil," has garnered interest as demand surged with the rise of electric vehicle production, significantly increasing its price on global markets.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), there were 2 million electric vehicles worldwide last year.  The IEA forecasts that this number will reach at least 40 million by 2040. The demand for lithium is expected to grow from 700 thousand tons in 2022 to 2.5 million tons by 2030.

The head of the Main Geology Directorate, Ilhom Oymuhammadzoda, stated that Tajik specialists are working on locating lithium deposits and other rare earth minerals.  He mentioned ongoing exploration in the lithium-rich southern part of the Pamirs.

David Cameron: “We want to start a new era in relations with Tajikistan”

Despite Tajikistan's rich rare earth element deposits, extraction has been challenging due to the difficult terrain, requiring significant funds.  Until recently, Chinese investors were the primary interested parties, mainly focusing on gold mining. However, the situation has begun to change, with other global powers showing increased interest in Central Asia's mineral wealth.

In April this year,  Lord David Cameron, Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs of the United Kingdom, visited Tajikistan as part of a tour of five Central Asian countries, aiming to implement a new British strategy for engaging former Soviet republics within the "C5+1" format to reduce Russian and Chinese influence. London is focusing on promising investment projects and soft power in the Central Asian struggle for influence.

This visit is seen as the foundation of new relations, strengthening cooperation in trade and investment, social policy, science, and education. Joint mining and processing of Tajikistan's minerals is considered a promising direction. This was the first visit by a British diplomatic head to Tajikistan.

Announcing the tour's goals, David Cameron emphasized that Central Asia, neighboring Russia and China, is one of the world's most crucial regions, and it is vital for the UK to compete actively in the area. "If you want to protect and promote British interests, you have to step out of your country and compete. Central Asia is at the heart of some of the biggest problems we face, and it is vital for the UK and the region that we promote its future prosperity," Cameron stated.

The decision to turn to Central Asia was made last year when the British Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee presented a report titled "Countries at a Crossroads: UK Engagement in Central Asia."  The report concluded that the previous policy was ineffective. David Cameron's visit to Tajikistan and talks with President Emomali Rahmon marked the beginning of a new phase, calling for fresh relations with Central Asia.

"We want to start a new era in relations between the UK and Central Asian countries, starting with Tajikistan," Cameron said in Dushanbe, announcing plans to create two new investment funds for the region, including developing the mining industry.

Amid London's increased activity, Japan has also declared its growing ambitions in Central Asia, announcing a summit with the region's five countries this summer.

US Expert: the US has an opportunity to counter China in Central Asia

Interest in Central Asia's mineral resources is also growing in the United States.  In January this year, experts from the Washington-based Atlantic Council and authors of the report "Using Central Asia's Rare Earth Elements for Economic Growth" discussed how the region's REE reserves could stimulate global economic growth.  According to US experts, Kazakhstan is already producing REEs through the state holding Kazatomprom, and Uzbekistan has established a Center for the Study of Rare Earth Metals at Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex.

Researchers noted that countries like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan lack transparency in attracting international partners but are conducting REE development studies. The report suggested creating a Central Asian Center for the Study of Rare Earth Elements to research potential clients, investors, and partners in Central Asia.  This center is deemed necessary primarily for the region's countries.

The US sees the region as attractive for competing with other global leaders—China and Russia. Ambassador John E. Herbst, Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, stated that Central Asia might present a unique opportunity for the US to geopolitically counter China and Russia if a pro-American policy can be implemented.  "I believe that the residents of Central Asia are also looking for closer relations with the US and our interest in strengthening the region, ensuring access to essential minerals. The US Department of Commerce is already providing technical assistance to Central Asian countries in extracting rare earth metals," Mr. Herbst emphasized.

"The key is that competition among major countries benefits Central Asia"

Experts believe attracting multiple countries to develop the mining industry in the region, including Tajikistan, is crucial. "Competition is necessary; we cannot allow investments and large loans to come from just one country.  Western investments in the exploration and extraction of REEs in Central Asia are a vital opportunity not only to establish global supply chains but also to support regional integration, sovereignty, and economic freedom in these states," said Tajik political scientist Asad Behruz.  "Essentially, the 21st-century competition is shifting from oil, gas, and other hydrocarbons to the global race for rare earth elements.  Investments in developing REE extraction will accelerate economic growth in Central Asia, creating a vital market for producing components necessary for transitioning to green energy.  The key is ensuring that competition among major countries benefits the region without leading to conflict."