Central Asia is increasingly dependent on the glaciers of the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains, which are rapidly melting. As a result, the region is facing rising risks of floods, mudflows, and droughts. To address this, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has launched a $3.5 billion program called "From Glaciers to Farms."

The goal of the program is to protect the region from water and crop loss and to link scientific data about glaciers with practical solutions for agriculture and water resources.

Media forum: scientists and journalists discuss the future of mountain water

The scale of the problem and potential solutions were the main topics of an online forum held by the ADB and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) on December 10.

Participants discussed the rapid melting of glaciers in Central and Western Asia, the Himalayas, and the Hindu Kush, and the implications this has for water security. A key moment was the presentation of the ADB's "From Glaciers to Farms" (G2F) program by Chris Dickinson, the ADB's Senior Climate Change Adaptation Expert. The program covers nine countries, from Armenia and Georgia to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, creating a unified system for climate change adaptation. The concept is simple: monitor glacier conditions and use this data in regions where water is critical to people's livelihoods—agriculture, energy, water supply systems, and healthcare.

Thus, the initiative moves from discussing the problem to offering financially and technically sound solutions.

$3.5 billion to connect glaciers with farmlands

The G2F program, which spans nine countries in the region, is backed by investments totaling $3.5 billion, with $250 million from the Green Climate Fund. The co-financing mechanism aims to attract about ten additional dollars for every dollar invested.

The core idea of G2F is to create a full adaptation cycle to climate change: from satellite monitoring of glaciers and GMIS stations in the mountains to crop insurance, farmer support, and modernization of water supply systems in valleys. The ADB emphasizes that glaciers are the starting point of the entire food system, and as they shrink, there will inevitably be less water in the valleys, leading to less food.

Tajikistan: early warning rather than late recovery

As Chris Dickinson pointed out, for Tajikistan, where nearly all electricity is generated by hydroelectric plants and a large part of the population lives in mountainous regions, the G2F program is an important test of readiness for the climate challenges of the 21st century.

The pilot project focuses on strengthening the meteorological service and expanding monitoring of snow, ice, and landslides. A key element is the creation of a modern early warning system in the Pyanj River basin, which will integrate data on glacial lakes, mudflows, precipitation, and seismic activity, allowing the population to be alerted to potential threats in advance. Dickinson emphasized that it is not only the data itself that is important, but also how it is communicated to people—via mobile alerts and training locals to respond to danger signals.

This work is critical as destructive processes caused by glacier melt are already being felt throughout Central Asia.

Glacier crisis in Central Asia: why it affects everyone

According to Dickinson, the glaciers of the Pamir and Tien Shan feed the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, which supply water to the population, industry, hydropower, and agriculture. Up to 74% of the flow of the Amu Darya comes from snow and glacier melt, and in the Indus basin, this figure reaches 40%.

However, the real scale of glacier melt is not fully known: of more than 54,000 glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas and Pamir-Tien Shan regions, only a few dozen are regularly monitored. Scientists warn that if the climate continues to warm, up to two-thirds of glaciers could disappear by 2100.

These changes create a chain of threats, which became a separate topic of discussion at the forum.

"Cascading crisis": how glacier melt is changing the region’s life

ICIMOD and ADB experts explained that glacier melt triggers a complex chain of natural risks, known as a "cascading crisis." This series of interconnected threats amplify each other.

Rising temperatures accelerate landslides and mudflows, increase flood frequency, and cause droughts that lead to crop losses and pasture depletion. Glacial lake outbursts can destroy settlements in a matter of hours. In hot years, the incidence of heat-related illnesses and poor water quality increases.

Since the 19th century, about 500 glacial lake outbursts have occurred in the region, and by 2100, this frequency may triple. The most vulnerable are mountain communities, where 62% of the population lives.

Thus, the consequences are already being felt, but it’s crucial to understand that the causes of glacier melt are also rapidly accelerating.

“Water towers” of Central Asia are losing glaciers the fastest

Research from the international GlacierMIP initiative explains why the region faces such a large-scale threat. According to experts, Central Asia accounts for 8.5% of global glacier mass loss, one of the highest figures in the world.

Miriam Jackson, a representative of ICIMOD and the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), showed that climate change is accelerating. Since 1850, the Earth has warmed by about 0.06°C every decade, but since the 1980s, it has warmed by 0.20°C per decade. This warming is particularly noticeable in the Pamirs and Tien Shan, where the rise in temperature directly accelerates glacier melt.

Jackson warned that if global temperatures rise by 1.6°C, the world could lose up to half of its glacier mass. For Central Asia, this process may be even more critical: with a 1.9°C rise in temperature, the region could lose up to half of its glaciers. This intensifies pressure on the region's water resources, where up to 74% of the Amu Darya's flow comes from snow and ice melt.

Blatten lesson: how monitoring and trust save a village

To show how science and risk management can save lives, the forum cited the example of Switzerland. Researcher Simon Allen shared the story of Blatten village, which was completely destroyed in 2025.

The glacier had been monitored since the 1990s: in May 2025, sensors detected dangerous changes, and on May 19, authorities evacuated residents. On May 28, a mudflow destroyed the village. Thanks to monitoring, no one died.

This case shows that data and trust between authorities, scientists, and the population are key to preventing tragedies. This is the system that the G2F program aims to implement in Central Asia.

Why this is a chance for Central Asia

The ADB emphasizes that climate risks can be a catalyst for development. Currently, 87.6% of the region's climate financing needs remain unmet, and one in four small and medium-sized businesses sees access to finance as the biggest barrier.

The G2F initiative addresses three key gaps:

·         Scientific: Turning complex glacier models into understandable risks for water, crops, and health.

·         Financial: Ensuring adaptation funds reach farmers, utilities, and hospitals.

·         Institutional: Creating a unified data system for meteorology, agriculture, energy, healthcare, and emergency services.

For mountain countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, this is an opportunity to show they are not just vulnerable regions but leaders offering the world real models for adapting to the rapidly changing climate.